slow takeoff
In plain wordsA scenario in which AI becomes superhuman step by step, over years or decades, as it spreads through the economy, giving society time to spot problems and respond.
A takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days. in which the move from roughly human-level AI to superintelligencesuperintelligence, n.: A mind, usually imagined as an AI, that would leave even the cleverest people far behind in nearly every kind of thinking, not just in one game or skill. None is known to exist. unfolds over years or longer, with capabilities improving continuously and many actors deploying increasingly capable systems along the way. Paul Christiano's widely used operationalization is economic: world output will double over some complete four-year period before it ever doubles within a single year. Proponents, including Christiano and the economist Robin Hanson, argue that competitive pressure means less capable but still useful systems will be built and deployed before transformative ones, so a sudden jump is unlikely. A slow takeoff in this sense can still be very fast by historical standards, and it carries its own risks, such as gradual disempowermentgradual disempowerment, n.: The risk that, as AI does more and more of the work people now do, humanity slowly loses its grip on business, government and culture, until it no longer steers its own future. and racing among many developers, even as it allows learning from intermediate failures.
Even a slow takeoff, in Christiano's sense, means world output doubling within a few years.
Origin
Early singularity writing contrasted a 'hard takeoff' with a 'slow' or 'soft' one; Eliezer Yudkowsky's Creating Friendly AI (2001) says 'slow takeoff'. Paul Christiano's February 2018 blog post 'Takeoff speeds' and AI Impacts' studies of historical discontinuities in technological progress recast the debate around continuity; 'slow' and 'continuous' takeoff are now the usual terms.
Related
- takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days.
- fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react.
- explosive growthexplosive growth, n.: A hypothetical jump in the world economy's growth rate to 30% a year or more, about ten times today's pace, which some economists think AI that replaces human workers could cause.
- gradual disempowermentgradual disempowerment, n.: The risk that, as AI does more and more of the work people now do, humanity slowly loses its grip on business, government and culture, until it no longer steers its own future.
- AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never.
- multipolar scenariomultipolar scenario, n.: A possible future in which many powerful AIs, companies or countries coexist and compete, with none able to dominate the rest.
- fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react.
Sources
- Christiano, P. (2018). Takeoff speeds. The sideways view (blog).
Mentioned in
fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react., takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days., explosive growthexplosive growth, n.: A hypothetical jump in the world economy's growth rate to 30% a year or more, about ten times today's pace, which some economists think AI that replaces human workers could cause., FOOMFOOM, n.: Slang for a sudden, explosive jump in an AI's abilities, the AI going 'foom' and racing from about human level to vastly superhuman in a very short time., multipolar scenariomultipolar scenario, n.: A possible future in which many powerful AIs, companies or countries coexist and compete, with none able to dominate the rest., Robin HansonRobin Hanson, prop. n.: An American economist who debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about whether AI would take off suddenly or gradually, and who imagined an economy run by digital copies of human minds., warning shotwarning shot, n.: An AI accident or near-miss serious enough to alarm the world about AI's dangers, but not so serious that it cannot be recovered from, which could prompt action before a real catastrophe.