high-level machine intelligence
In plain wordsA yardstick used in surveys of AI researchers: the point at which machines on their own could outdo human workers at every task, in both quality and cost.
A milestone defined for expert surveys so that respondents can forecast advanced AI without first agreeing on what intelligence is. In the surveys run by AI Impacts (2016, 2022 and 2023), HLMI counts as reached when 'unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers', judged by feasibility rather than by whether law or custom permits deployment. A separate question asks when all occupations will be fully automatable (full automation of labor, FAOL). The results show strong framing effects: in the 2023 survey of 2,778 researchers who had published at leading AI venues, the aggregate forecast gave a 50% chance of HLMI by 2047, thirteen years earlier than in the 2022 survey, but a 50% chance of full automation of labor only by 2116, although HLMI would seem to imply that all occupations could be automated. An earlier survey by Vincent C. Müller and Nick BostromNick Bostrom, prop. n.: A Swedish philosopher whose 2014 book 'Superintelligence' argued that AI smarter than humans could be catastrophic unless its goals are carefully controlled, and helped make AI risk a mainstream concern. defined HLMI more loosely, as a machine able to do most human jobs at least as well as an ordinary practitioner of each.
Respondents put HLMI decades earlier than full automation of labor, which should be nearly the same event.
Origin
Used as the target milestone of Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom's survey of AI experts, conducted in 2012–2013 and published in 2016; earlier uses not established. Katja Grace and colleagues at AI Impacts adopted a stricter version in a 2016 survey, published in 2018 as 'When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?', and repeated it in 2022 and 2023.
Usage note
A forecasting construct rather than a research goal; rarely used outside survey literature. Compare transformative AItransformative AI, n.: AI that changes the world as deeply as farming or the Industrial Revolution did. It is defined by its effects on society and the economy, not by how humanlike or clever it is., defined by impact, and artificial general intelligenceartificial general intelligence, n.: AI that could learn and do almost any mental task a capable adult can, rather than excelling at one narrow job. Experts disagree on the exact bar and on when, or whether, it will arrive., defined by capability.
Related
- AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never.
- human-level AIhuman-level AI, n.: AI that can match an ordinary adult across the whole range of thinking tasks, such as talking, learning, reasoning and planning. An older, more intuitive name for the goal now usually called general AI.
- artificial general intelligenceartificial general intelligence, n.: AI that could learn and do almost any mental task a capable adult can, rather than excelling at one narrow job. Experts disagree on the exact bar and on when, or whether, it will arrive.
- transformative AItransformative AI, n.: AI that changes the world as deeply as farming or the Industrial Revolution did. It is defined by its effects on society and the economy, not by how humanlike or clever it is.
- technological unemploymenttechnological unemployment, n.: Joblessness caused by machines or software taking over work that people used to be paid for, faster than new kinds of work appear for them.
- automationautomation, n.: Using machines or software to do work that people would otherwise do, from factory robots to programs that sort email or write reports.
Sources
- Müller, V. C. & Bostrom, N. (2016). Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion. In Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Synthese Library 376). Springer.
- Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B. & Evans, O. (2018). When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 62.
- Grace, K., Stewart, H., Sandkühler, J. F., Thomas, S., Weinstein-Raun, B., Brauner, J. & Korzekwa, R. C. (2024). Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI. arXiv:2401.02843; later published in the Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research. arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843
Mentioned in
p(doom)p(doom), n.: Shorthand for someone's personal estimate of the chance that AI leads to catastrophe for humanity, such as extinction. People give it as a percentage, from nearly zero to nearly certain., AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never., human-level AIhuman-level AI, n.: AI that can match an ordinary adult across the whole range of thinking tasks, such as talking, learning, reasoning and planning. An older, more intuitive name for the goal now usually called general AI., machine intelligencemachine intelligence, n.: Intelligence shown by machines; another name for artificial intelligence, preferred by some because it does not suggest that such intelligence is fake., transformative AItransformative AI, n.: AI that changes the world as deeply as farming or the Industrial Revolution did. It is defined by its effects on society and the economy, not by how humanlike or clever it is., AI ImpactsAI Impacts, prop. n.: A small research project that studies how and when human-level artificial intelligence might arrive, best known for large surveys asking AI researchers to predict their field's future.