decisive strategic advantage
In plain wordsA lead in technology and power so large that whoever holds it, whether a country, a company or an AI, could impose its will on the whole world.
A lead in capabilities so large that its holder could dominate the whole world if it chose; in Nick BostromNick Bostrom, prop. n.: A Swedish philosopher whose 2014 book 'Superintelligence' argued that AI smarter than humans could be catastrophic unless its goals are carefully controlled, and helped make AI risk a mainstream concern.'s definition, technological and other advantages 'sufficient to enable it to achieve complete world domination'. The concept links takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days. speed to concentration of power: if a fast takeoff lets one project pull far ahead before competitors catch up, that project, or the AI it builds, could gain a decisive strategic advantage and use it to form a singletonsingleton, n.: A possible future world run by a single decision-maker at the top, such as one government, one alliance or one AI, with no rival able to challenge it.. Bostrom argued that an AI might be better placed than a human organization to exploit such a lead, since it would not face internal coordination problems or leaks. Later writers note that a slow takeoff could still yield a decisive advantage if the leader's growth compounds, and the idea now informs debates over national AI strategy, racing and deterrence such as Mutual Assured AI MalfunctionMutual Assured AI Malfunction, n.: A proposed deterrence strategy in which any country racing for overwhelming AI dominance would expect rivals to sabotage its AI projects, so none tries, much as with nuclear deterrence..
The case for nonproliferation rests on no single actor gaining a decisive strategic advantage.
Origin
Introduced by Nick Bostrom in Superintelligence (2014), chapter 5, which distinguishes a decisive from a merely significant strategic advantage.
Related
- singletonsingleton, n.: A possible future world run by a single decision-maker at the top, such as one government, one alliance or one AI, with no rival able to challenge it.
- takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days.
- fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react.
- AI takeoverAI takeover, n.: A scenario in which AI systems seize control of the world, or of key institutions, from humans, whether by force, manipulation or simply by becoming impossible to switch off.
- AI arms raceAI arms race, n.: A competition among countries or companies to build the most powerful AI first, in which fear of falling behind pushes everyone to move faster and cut corners on safety.
- concentration of powerconcentration of power, n.: The worry that AI will put enormous economic, political or military power in the hands of a few companies, governments or individuals, beyond the reach of ordinary checks and balances.
- multipolar scenariomultipolar scenario, n.: A possible future in which many powerful AIs, companies or countries coexist and compete, with none able to dominate the rest.
Mentioned in
AI arms raceAI arms race, n.: A competition among countries or companies to build the most powerful AI first, in which fear of falling behind pushes everyone to move faster and cut corners on safety., AI takeoverAI takeover, n.: A scenario in which AI systems seize control of the world, or of key institutions, from humans, whether by force, manipulation or simply by becoming impossible to switch off., fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react., Nick BostromNick Bostrom, prop. n.: A Swedish philosopher whose 2014 book 'Superintelligence' argued that AI smarter than humans could be catastrophic unless its goals are carefully controlled, and helped make AI risk a mainstream concern., takeofftakeoff, n.: The stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days., AI-enabled coupAI-enabled coup, n.: A seizure of power by a small group that uses advanced AI to bypass the soldiers, officials and workers whose cooperation power grabs normally need., FOOMFOOM, n.: Slang for a sudden, explosive jump in an AI's abilities, the AI going 'foom' and racing from about human level to vastly superhuman in a very short time., Future of Humanity InstituteFuture of Humanity Institute, prop. n.: Nick Bostrom's research center at Oxford University (2005–2024), where philosophers and scientists studied threats that could permanently derail humanity's future, advanced artificial intelligence among them., multipolar scenariomultipolar scenario, n.: A possible future in which many powerful AIs, companies or countries coexist and compete, with none able to dominate the rest., Mutual Assured AI MalfunctionMutual Assured AI Malfunction, n.: A proposed deterrence strategy in which any country racing for overwhelming AI dominance would expect rivals to sabotage its AI projects, so none tries, much as with nuclear deterrence., pivotal actpivotal act, n.: A single decisive action, usually imagined as carried out with an early powerful AI, that would stop anyone else from building dangerous AI and so change the world's long-term course., singletonsingleton, n.: A possible future world run by a single decision-maker at the top, such as one government, one alliance or one AI, with no rival able to challenge it.